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How can we forecast Australia’s demographic changes to better guide policymaking in areas like immigration and regional planning?

The problem:

Accurate small-area population projections are vital for delivering public services, planning infrastructure, and informing immigration policy. However, projecting growth at the district level is challenging due to demographic complexities and migration patterns.

Our research:

• A detailed microsimulation model was developed to project Australia’s population and labour force growth at the SA4 district level through to 2051, using ABS Census data to simulate individual demographic events and the effects of migration policies, with attention to age, gender, country of birth, and location.
• This innovative modelling approach enables nuanced, small-area projections, offering valuable insights into how demographic patterns may evolve across different regions, particularly by capturing both internal and international migration trends.
• Our research aims to improve understanding of demographic shifts within Australia to support policy and planning decisions.

Our impact:

• Our microsimulation model equips policymakers and planners with district-level demographic forecasts, enabling more precise planning for population and labour force trends across Australia.
• By delivering detailed insights into future demographic shifts, our research supports the development of informed policies on immigration, regional planning, and resource allocation, helping ensure services and infrastructure are targeted to meet the specific needs of each region.
• Through this work, we contribute to more effective and equitable decision-making, enhancing Australia's ability to respond to changing population dynamics at both local and national levels.

By capturing internal and international migration patterns, our model enhances understanding of demographic shifts within Australia.